Why can small hail decline while large hail becomes more common?

Answer: A deeper warm fall layer

Less dust to start ice — A seed particle matters for starting hail, but this is not the projected size split. The study's surprising result is that the atmosphere becomes a harsher filter on the way down. Small stones spend their fall inside a deeper above-freezing layer and may vanish as raindrops, while big stones lose mass but still arrive.

A deeper warm fall layer ✓ — Correct. Warming lifts the melting level, so hailstones fall through more air above 0 C before reaching the ground. That hurts small stones most because they have little ice to spare. In one 2024 modelling study, melting-level height was expected to rise by at least 500 m by century's end, favouring fewer small stones at the surface.

Gravity weakens in storms — No. Gravity is not changing inside a thunderstorm in any meaningful way. The competition is between upward storm winds, hail weight and melting during descent. The climate twist is that stronger growth aloft and stronger melting below can happen together.